The World Steel Association released the latest version of its short-term steel demand forecast for 2020 and 2021 on the 16th. Although the forecast still points to a decline in demand in 2020, the decline is much smaller than previously expected.

Worldsteel forecasts that global steel demand will shrink by 2.4% to 1,725.1 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021, global steel demand is expected to recover to 1,795.1 million tonnes, up 4.1% year-on-year. Due to China's strong recovery, the decline in global steel demand will be reduced this year. After the end of lockdown measures, steel demand in the rest of the world exceeded our previous forecasts.? Nevertheless, steel demand will shrink deeply in 2020 in both developed and developing economies and will not partially recover until 2021.

The forecast suggests that despite the current resurgence in many countries around the world, there will be no return to nationwide lockdowns. Conversely, a second wave of the pandemic can be contained through selective and purposeful measures.

Commenting on the forecast, Al Remeithi, Chairman of worldsteel's Market Research Committee, said: "The global steel industry recovered from the lowest point in steel demand in April and has been recovering since mid-May. Nevertheless, the recovery of global steel demand has been uneven due to differences in the containment of the spread of the new coronavirus, domestic industrial structure, and economic support measures around the world. 

China has shown surprising resilience to rebound, prompting a sharp upward revision of global steel demand growth forecasts for 2020. In other countries of the world, both developed and developing, we will see steel demand shrink sharply. The crisis has been challenging for developing economies, which have lost sight of the runaway pandemic, low commodity prices, and falling exports and tourism. The pandemic has accelerated some of the global megatrends that have been transforming our steel and downstream industries with long-term impacts far outweighing short-term impacts. ”